As Voters Buck Trump, Florida Defies the Blue Wave

The 2026 midterm elections produced a national “blue tsunami.” Democrats regained control of both chambers of Congress, winning at least 54 U.S. Senate seats and a projected 248 seats in the U.S. House. Republicans suffered significant losses nationwide, including the loss of at least five governorships in states such as Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Texas.

While midterm setbacks for the party in power are common, the 2026 results represent a considerably worse outcome for President Donald Trump than his 2018 midterm and stand in sharp contrast to President Joe Biden’s unusually strong 2022 performance. Historically, only President Barack Obama’s 2010 “shellacking” resulted in larger congressional losses.

Florida Remains Republican.

Despite the national environment, Florida Republicans significantly outperformed their counterparts across the country. Republicans maintained control of all five statewide offices, electing Byron Donalds as Governor while also winning races for U.S. Senate (Ashley Moody), Attorney General (James Uthmeir), Chief Financial Officer (Blaise Ingoglia), and Commissioner of Agriculture (Wilton Simpson).

The results reflect the continued strength of Florida’s Republican infrastructure, which now enjoys roughly a 1.5 million voter registration advantage and remains one of the most successful state party organizations in the country.

However, the election was not a Republican wave. Democrats made meaningful gains down ballot, particularly in suburban districts throughout Central and South Florida.

Democratic Gains in the Legislature

 Democrats flipped one seat in the Florida Senate and made substantial gains in the Florida House, flipping 16 Republican-held districts while Republicans gained only one Democratic seat.

Many of the most significant Democratic gains occurred in suburban districts across Central and South Florida, particularly in Orange, Seminole, Brevard, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, Alachua, Levy, Polk, Osceola, and Miami-Dade counties.

Republican incumbents defeated included:

• Chad Johnson (Alachua and Levy Counties)
• Monique Miller (Brevard County)
• Hillary Holley (Polk County)
• Erika Booth (Orange and Osceola Counties)
• Rachel Plakon (Seminole County)
• Doug Bankson (Orange and Seminole Counties)
• Danny Alvarez (Hillsborough County)
• Anne Gerwig (Palm Beach County)
• Meg Weinberger (Palm Beach County)
• Hillary Cassel (Broward County)
• Fabian Basabe (Miami-Dade County)

Republicans did score one pickup, as John Maples of Palm Beach County defeated Democratic Rep. Emily Gregory, who had won a special election earlier this year.

When the Legislature convenes in 2027, Speaker-designate Sam Garrison will preside over a Republican majority of 70 members, while Democratic Leader Christine Hunschofsky will lead an expanded 50-member Democratic caucus.

Donalds Victory Signals Pro-Growth Focus for Florida

 While much of the country’s attention focused on national losses for Republicans, Florida voters elevated Byron Donalds to the Governor’s Mansion. Donalds enters office with a strong private-sector and financial-services background and campaigned on continuing Florida’s business-friendly policies, growing high-wage jobs, reducing regulatory burdens, and addressing affordability challenges facing families and employers.

For the business community, Donalds’ election provides continuity following the DeSantis administration’s emphasis on economic development, workforce growth, infrastructure investment, and low taxes. His focus on job creation and affordability is expected to be a driving force behind the 2027 legislative agenda and beyond.

Amendment 3 Wins Voter Approval

 Perhaps the most significant policy outcome of the election was voter approval of Amendment 3, Florida’s major property tax relief initiative. Supported by more than 61 percent of voters, the amendment increases the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 for non-school property taxes.

The amendment also reduces the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10 percent to 5 percent, providing greater predictability for businesses and investment property owners.

Its passage reflects growing voter concern over rapidly rising property taxes and signals that tax reform will remain a major issue in Tallahassee. Additional policy discussions are expected during a potential special session and through the 2027 Taxation and Budget Reform Commission, which could recommend further constitutional and statutory tax changes for consideration in 2028.

Looking Ahead

 The 2026 elections reinforced two realities. First, Florida remains one of the strongest Republican states in the nation, continuing to buck national trends at the top of the ticket. Second, while much of the fallout is due in large part to voters disapproving of Trump’s economy and war in Iran, Democrats demonstrated renewed competitiveness in key suburban legislative districts, particularly in Central and Southeast Florida.

As lawmakers prepare for the start of the 2027 Legislative Session on March 2, the majorities remain firmly in Republican control.

Our team is already actively engaging with incoming House and Senate leadership, committee chairs, and newly elected members in both chambers to build relationships and identify legislative priorities. These early conversations will be critical as lawmakers organize for the 2027 Session and begin developing the policies that will define Florida’s next chapter under the leadership of Byron Donalds, Jim Boyd, and Sam Garrison.

We look forward to helping the industry navigate this transition and ensuring your voices are part of the policy discussions that will shape Florida’s future. As Florida’s political landscape evolves, continued engagement with policymakers and support for our PAC will remain essential to maintaining strong relationships and advancing our industry’s priorities in Tallahassee.