The stage is set after Tuesday’s primary election. Most candidates will now prepare for the November 5th general election, while some have won their contests unopposed or face nominal general election challenges. Republicans recently surpassed a one million voter advantage in registration totals. Meanwhile, Republican turn out in the Primary Election was +14 statewide. Republicans currently hold supermajorities in the House and Senate.
The Senate is unlikely to change. The Senate splits its 40 districts each election cycle, with only their odd numbered districts hosting contests in 2024. Senate campaigns will feature 19 races, rather than 20, since former State Rep. Carlos Guillermo-Smith (D) won unopposed in his campaign for Senate District 17.
The primary settled several questions, including who would ultimately face off against incumbent Sen. Corey Simon (R-District 3). Challenger Daryl Parks (D) won his primary contest decisively. This race will be one of the most watched and expensive races in the state.
The rest of the Senate makeup is fairly well decided following Tuesday’s primaries. In Democrat primaries with nominal general elections coming up, Senators Traci Davis (D-District 5), Geraldine Thompson (D-District 15) cruised to victory and faces no opposition in the general election.
Representative Kristen Arrington (D-District 25) won her primary and is expected to win against the Republican primary victor, Jose Martinez (R). Barabara Sharief (D-District 35) was the surprising winner of the evening to replace current Minority Leader Lauren Book.
In Republican primaries, Tom Leek (R-District 7) and Keith Truenow (R-District 13) won in the most watched races of the night. Both races would have been considered among the most expensive legislative races across the country. Rep. Randy Fine (R-District 19) won his primary easily. All three of these races were open seats and are expected to win their general elections.
The remaining Senate candidates face nominal general elections and are expected to win re-election or open races:
District 1 – Don Gaetz (R)
District 9 – Stan McClain (R)
District 11 – Blaise Ingoglia (R)
District 21 – Ed Hooper (R)
District 23 – Danny Burgess (R)
District 27 – Ben Albritton (R)
District 29 – Erin Grall (R)
District 31 – Gayle Harrell (R)
District 33 – Jonathan Martin (R)
District 37 – Jason Pizzo (D)
District 39 – Bryan Avila (R)
While House Republicans may lose some of their 84-seat lead, they are poised to maintain their strong majority and could still return a supermajority. Ultimately, it will all depends on overall turnout and performance at the top of the ticket.
All 120 House seats would be up for election in November. Eight Members, all Democrats, have already won re-election, unopposed, including:
District 88 – Jervonte Edmonds (D)
District 92 – Kelly Skidmore (D)
District 95 – Christine Hunschofsky (D)
District 96 – Dan Daley (D)
District 97 – Lisa Dunkley (D)
District 101 – Hillary Cassel (D)
District 104 – Felicia Robinson (D)
District 108 – Dottie Joseph (D)
Of the 120 seats 22 are considered open races because of either term limits or those who opted not to run. The incoming freshman class will have the largest concentrations in Southwest Florida and the Greater Jacksonville area. If you are in these areas, you may want to get to know the following, who came out victorious in their primaries, and will likely cruise through the general:
District 18 – Kim Kendall (R)
District 19 – Sam Greco (R)
District 20 – Judson Sapp (R)
District 22 – Chad Johnson (R)
District 26 – Nan Cobb (R)
District 27- Richard Gentry (R)
District 32 – Debbie Mayfield (R)
District 33 – Monique Miller (R)
District 46 – Jose Alvarez (D)
District 48 – Jon Albert (R)
District 49 – Jennifer Kincart Jonsson (R)
District 72 – William Conerly (R)
District 76 – Vanessa Oliver (R)
District 81 –Yvette Benarroch (R)
District 89 – Debra Tendrich (R)
District 94 – Meg Weinberger (R)
District 98 – Mitch Rosenwald (D)
District 107 – Wallace Aristide (D)
District 115 – Omar Blanco (R)
While the primaries effectively filled out much of the remaining composition of the Legislature, there are still a handful of races to watch in the general. These will determine whether Republicans can maintain its supermajority in the House.
While Florida’s Panhandle is solidly Republican, Democrat Allison Tant (D-District 9) drew a Republican challenger party leaders intend to make a strong push to flip a seat that has become more favorable for Republicans to increase their advantage.
In Central Florida, Erika Booth (R-District 35) won her primary and will face off in a rematch with Rep. Tom Keen. This race was previously decided in a special election earlier this year. Rep. Carolina Amesty and Paula Stark will face strong competition and present opportunities for Democrats to flip seats.
In Tampa Bay, Rep. Lindsey Cross (D-District 60) will face off against a formidable challenger. Ed Montanari is a popular St. Petersburg city commissioner offering Republicans the best chance to flip this district that traditionally leans Democrat.
In South Florida, Rep. Fabian Basabe will face off against former Central Florida Rep. Joe Saunders. This race also features Maureen “Mo” Saunders, Joe Saunders’ aunt. Rep. Basabe flipped this seat for Republicans for the first time during the 2022 election.
The FRVTA PAC was very active in supporting the winning efforts of many of the above campaigns. Thank you for your continued backing as we educate new members on the importance of our issues. In just a few weeks, the always popular silent auction will be open. We need your help in making this year’s auction the most successful one yet! As always, we look forward to your continued participation as we look toward the November elections and beyond.