The 2026 Florida Primary Election is just two weeks away.
More than 425,000 Floridians have already returned their ballots, and Early Voting will soon begin across the state. As voters begin making their final decisions, it’s a good time to examine the biggest races on the ballot and where we could still see surprises.
Campaigns release a steady stream of internal polling, often designed to shape narratives as much as measure public opinion. For this analysis, we’ll focus primarily on polling averages and broader trend lines rather than any single survey.
Governor
The Republican nomination for governor has largely been Byron Donalds’ race since President Donald Trump endorsed him more than a year ago.
The three-term congressman from Naples has consistently led both in fundraising and public polling over opponents former House Speaker Paul Renner, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, and James Fishback.
Since entering the race, Donalds has maintained a commanding advantage. For much of the past year, polling has shown him leading by more than 30 percentage points, with several recent surveys suggesting an even larger margin. While many polls still show a sizable bloc of undecided voters, Donalds appears well positioned to secure the Republican nomination on August 18.
Assuming that outcome, he would advance to a November showdown with Democrat David Jolly.
Jolly, the Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat and former Tampa Bay congressman, had a far less contested path to his party’s nomination. His most significant potential challenger, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, withdrew from the race earlier this year due to health concerns, effectively clearing the field. Jolly has since selected former Congresswoman Gwen Graham as his running mate.
The general election will attract national attention.
Just four years ago, Gov. Ron DeSantis defeated Charlie Crist by nearly 20 percentage points, one of the most decisive gubernatorial victories in modern Florida history. That outcome stood in stark contrast to DeSantis’ razor-thin victory in 2018, when he won by less than one percentage point.
Florida’s political landscape has changed dramatically since then. Republicans erased a voter registration deficit of more than 400,000 voters and now hold an advantage exceeding 1.5 million registered voters. The state also became nationally known as the “Free State of Florida” during the pandemic, helping cement its reputation as one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.
Still, recent head-to-head polling suggests the November contest could be more competitive than many expected. The latest University of North Florida survey showed Donalds leading Jolly, 46% to 41%.
Three months is an eternity in politics, and much can change before November. Democrats face significant structural challenges statewide, but they’ll attempt to capitalize on what is historically a more favorable environment for the party during a midterm election.
The Cabinet Races
Republicans also appear well positioned in the remaining statewide contests.
Chief Financial Officer candidate Blaise Ingoglia and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson currently face what many analysts consider the clearest paths to victory, with both races generally viewed as solid Republican holds.
The most competitive statewide race is shaping up to be the contest for Attorney General between Republican James Uthmeier and Democrat José Javier Rodríguez.
Uthmeier has built one of the strongest fundraising operations of any Republican running statewide, benefiting from incumbent support and a well-established donor network. He also secured President Donald Trump’s endorsement, along with backing from numerous Republican legislative leaders, statewide officials, and law enforcement organizations.
Rodríguez has assembled a credible campaign with support from Democratic elected officials and progressive organizations, though he has trailed Uthmeier in fundraising throughout much of the race.
Based on the available polling, fundraising, and endorsements, Republicans currently appear positioned to retain all three Cabinet offices, though turnout and the broader political environment will ultimately determine the margins.
Looking Ahead
In our next edition, we’ll break down Florida’s most closely watched congressional races.
With newly redrawn congressional districts and control of Congress once again at stake, Florida will play a major role in determining the balance of power in Washington.
As always, your support of the PAC is essential to our advocacy efforts in Tallahassee. With the primary just two weeks away and the general election only three months behind it, now is the time to ensure we have the resources needed to continue making a difference.
Andrés Malavé
Director of Government Relations
D: 305.632.3207
amalave@joneswalker.com
Jones Walker LLP
106 East College Ave, Ste 1200
Tallahassee, FL 32301
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