As we move deeper into 2026 and the election season starts to heat up, we wanted to send you a clear, straightforward breakdown of the major races here in Florida. We also want to share what to expect from the new property tax amendment. The success of that amendment is now in the hands of the voters. Meanwhile, the Sunshine State remains one of the most closely watched political battlegrounds in the country, and these midterm elections will determine the future of the state for years to come.
- A $150,000 super homestead exemption for non-school taxes starting in 2027, growing to $250,000 in 2028, then adjusted to increases in CPI thereafter;
- This exemption applies to county, city, and district as valorem taxes. If approved, it is forecasted to reduce local government revenues by $4.6 billion in 2027, $8.1 billion in 2028, growing to $9.6 billion annually, assuming local governments do not increase millage rates in the future.
- Homestead properties continue to pay school taxes on property valued over $25,000 (current exemption).
- A reduction of the 10% annual assessment increase limitation for nonhomestead properties to 5%;
- The nonhomestead limit continues to apply only to nonschool taxes. Nonhomestead property owners continue to pay school taxes on the full taxable value.
- The savings to nonhomestead residential properties is forecasted from $167 million growing to $970 million annually after five years. For nonresidential properties, its forecasted to save $187 million growing to $1.3 billion.
- The Constitutional Amendment limits the available uses of ad valorem taxes in the future to listed “core service;”
- Historically, property taxes were always a general revenue source that local governments could use for any purpose.
- While the stated Legislative intent was to provide flexibility to local governments, if it is later determined that certain services are excluded, then those services would need to be funded solely by special assessments, user fees, or fines.
- Additionally, the Constitutional Amendment provides that any person not making Florida his or her permanent residence on December 31, 2026, must wait four years before enjoying the new super $250,000 homestead exemption.
- You need only prove permanent residency, which is undefined.
Governor’s Race
Democrats have now consolidated around David Jolly, a former Republican who later became an Independent before joining the Democratic Party. This happened after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings stepped out of the race. Jolly has picked former Panhandle Congresswoman Gwen Graham as his running mate.
On the Republican side, Congressman Byron Donalds (who has President Trump’s endorsement) is the strong frontrunner and presumptive nominee. He’s polling close to or above 50%, has a significant fundraising advantage, and has built a solid grassroots operation. Lt. Governor Jay Collins and former Speaker Paul Renner are still in the race but haven’t been able to close the gap in polls or money.
Attorney General
This race has narrowed down to two main candidates. Republican James Uthmeier (Governor DeSantis’ appointee and also Trump-endorsed) will face Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez, a former South Florida State House member.
Chief Financial Officer
Republican Blaise Ingoglia, another DeSantis appointee, has become well-known across the state for his work on Florida’s “DOGE” efforts to expose government waste. He’ll face a primary challenger first, then the winner of the Democratic primary between Annette Tadeo and Earl Ford. The two Democrats have raised less than $50,000 combined so far.
Commissioner of Agriculture
Incumbent Republican Wilton Simpson picked up a primary challenger but will win handily. On the Democratic side, two candidates have qualified, but neither has raised much money or built a serious organization to pose a real threat.
Florida Legislature
The big questions here are whether Republicans can keep the strong supermajorities they’ve built over the past few cycles and how national midterm trends could affect down-ballot races. Republicans currently hold an 86–34 majority in House. Meanwhile, in the Senate, Republican outnumber Democrats 27–12 (plus one Independent).
Democrats are determined to win back seats they lost recently, but Republicans have a strong fundraising edge. The GOP is focused on defending all their incumbents while also targeting several Democrat-held or leaning seats.
Key House Races to Watch
· HD 101 (Broward County) – Held by Rep. Hillary Cassel (former Democrat who switched parties). A top Democratic target.
· HD 35 (Orange/Osceola) – Held by Rep. Erika Booth. Democrats hope to flip it back.
· HD 37 (Orange/Seminole) – Open seat after Rep. Susan Plasencia announced she would not seek re-election. One of Democrats’ better pickup opportunities.
Republican targets include:
· HD 87 (Palm Beach – Rep. Emily Gregory, recent special election winner) and HD 45 (Orange/Osceola – Rep. Leonard Spencer).
Key Senate Race
The most notable contest is in the Tampa-area SD 14, where Senator Brian Nathan will face former Rep. Josie Tomkow in a rematch of their recent special election.
Outlook: Most incumbents on both sides appear relatively safe. The real action will likely center on a handful of competitive open seats and the outcomes of several important primaries. Those primaries will clarify the general election map heading into November.
Florida politics continues to evolve quickly, especially with national headwinds and turnout patterns playing major roles in midterm years. That makes this moment a critical opportunity to contribute to the PAC to ensure your team can win on the ground. Over the next few months, we invite you to join us in meeting the new slate of candidates who will influence the future of the industry from Tallahassee.
Andres Malave
Government Relations Dir.
D: 305-632-3207
AMalave@joneswalker.com